Saturday, May 2, 2009

The Numbers Tell Us Things Are Bad in Real Estate

Some real estate stuff from Real Capital Analytics (RCA) April Capital Trends Reports (We’re not out of this thing yet!):

1. Retail: Q1 retail asset sales volume, at $1.9b, was down more than 90% from its market peak two years earlier and was off 74% from the same quarter a year ago.

2. Office: the $3.6b sales volume for office properties through the first quarter fell to just 6% of the $77.5b recorded two years ago at the market peak in Q1’07. Versus a year ago, volume was off 76% and compared to the previous quarter, volume was down 53%. Digging deep to find any positive news, sales did increase slightly in March over February.

3. Industrial: Two statistics illustrate the state of investment sales for the industrial marketplace in q1’09. Closed deal volume fell to its lowest level in at least eight years at $1.3b, and was 9.2% of peak quarterly volume. Adding insult to injury, offered volume, at $8.3b, outpaced closed volume by over 6:1.

4. Apartment: Sales of significant apartment properties fell to a mere $1.8b in q1, a drop of 86% from a year ago. The unimpressive volume last quarter equates to just 6.7% of quarterly volume recorded at the market peak. As shocking as these declines are, more recent comparisons indicate that the market is continuing to slow. q1’09 volume breakdown

I guess these statistics just underscore what it’s like out there. Almost each week we read about new private equity funds that have been pulled due to lack of interest (or other issues) but many people that I speak with say that there is money out there; it’s a matter of finding who’s got it and in some cases working out a draw-down schedule that suits the investor.